I have said this some months ago!

WHY USA +5 NEGOTIATION ON IRAN NUCLEAR DISPUTE FAILS: CAN THE CURRENT OMAN NEGOTIATIONS SOLVE THE PROBLEM?

(For the benefit of researchers in the field of international politics, foreign policy analysis, political strategy and communications, international relations (IR) political and economic policy makers and any other interested readers.)

By Abbati Bako, political strategy and communications consultant and analyst in international politics, abbatibako@mail.com

*For 55 years, the issue of Tehran’s Nuclear dispute with western world (USA + its allies) has failed to bring any meaningful and mutually negotiated agreement for the past more than half a century.

But, the question one may ask; is the failure due to violation of rules and principles of negotiation and mediation? Why all the time deadlock or impasse? Due to an egocentric tendency? Political rhetoric from both sides or what? Or political shenanigans? There are many questions that are unanswered.

This analysis, therefore, attempts to survey some of the key elements and identify a number of methods that the protagonists can use in a mediation and negotiation process. Historically speaking the nuclear program of Iran was initiated in the early 1950s with support of US and European Nations.

Essentially the aim was for the Iran Government to establish atomic energy for peace, not for military purposes. Prior to the 1979 Islamic revolution in Iran, USA and Western European Nations helped and encouraged Iran to establish power plants in Bushehr 1 and Bushehr 2 water reactor which were expected to be operational in 2009. The former Leader of Iran, Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi had approved the plans to construct nuclear stations using German companies at that time.

After the 1979 Islamic revolution, USA and EU changed their mind for the fear that Iran may turn the plants to attain nuclear power for military purposes. And it looks very dangerous in the middle east and if war breaks out the shape of the world must be remodeled and a deep global economic recession will surface.

The Islamic Republic of Iran approached many countries (not only Western Nations) with their ambitions to attain nuclear capacity. Countries such as Mexico, Brazil, China, Russia and South Africa entered into contracts to support the nuclear programme of Tehran. At the same time Iran is subject to international legal frameworks.

“Tehran signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty in 1968 and ratified it in 1970 making Iran nuclear power subject to the approval of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).”

In recent years the dispute has accelerated. In the latter part of 2009 statements and counter statements have taken place through the UN mechanisms and the press. In February 2009 IAEA Board of Governors reported that, “Contrary to the decisions of the Security Council, Iran has not suspended its enrichment related activities” .

According to the report, Iran refused to give details of its enrichment activities to the IAEA inspectors. However, the US/EU States tend to favour diplomatic routes over military threats. It should not be ignored that both the US and EU also has long term foreign policy and strategic energy interests in the middle east region. The Middle East region is very strategic as far as global economic interplay is concerned; 48% of global oil supplies are in the Middle East.

Russia has strong interests in Iran (even some years back the Iranian officials were in Russia) due to its political and trade links; there is close cooperation in the areas of nuclear power, energy and arms. In a recent article published in a Russian newspaper (cited in China org article ) Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, said: “It would hurt both Russia and Iran politically and economically if sanctions against Iran were to be imposed.” Hence, the current President Trump term will try to see the possibility of negotiations with Tehran will solve the issue of nuclear problem.

Therefore, Russia could be a potential ally in pushing Iran in negotiations if it believes it will help ensure the ongoing successful implementation of the nuclear energy programme and Iran’s ability to trade internationally and more than 500 United Nations sanctions be lifted on Iran.

It is impossible to analyze the Iranian nuclear dispute without assessing the cumulative effects of past negotiations (Conflict History and also Conflict Context in Shay’s chart). Iran’s nuclear programme has been an ongoing issue between Iran and the western world for more than four decades. This is as a result of lack of trust between the powers.

In resolving conflicts, trust is a very important element in conflict resolution. As per Lewicki’s description, trust is an individual’s belief in and willingness to act on the basis of the words, actions and decisions of another. The quote below from former President of Iran Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad cited in the US Intelligence report, illustrates the root causes of this conflict which comes about from a fundamental lack of trust from both sides and which has been exacerbated in the past by aggressive US government actions (e.g: invasion of neighboring Iraq the Arab spring and conflict in Syria, Yemen, Libya and so on) and an ever increasingly aggressive rhetoric from the Iranian government and close relationship with the Russia Republic.

*Strategies for Negotiation and mediation:

Stakeholders and Relationship

The globally acknowledged expert in negotiations and mediations Professor Daniel Dana observes that “abstinence from communication is the essence of conflict, without doubt, no resolution is possible without communication”. Meaning that, communications gap is the root cause of failure for reaching agreement on negotiations.

Therefore, the most important point is to make a tentative timetable for negotiation with Tehran continually through IAEA as mediators and other relevant agencies in the world to assist.

*Negotiation in a nutshell.

Mediation and negotiation experts assert that it is important to look into relationships while going into negotiation. In view of that, we are to observe five styles of negotiation:

I ———————————————————————————————————
S Competition Problem solving
S avoid
U compromise
E —————–
(Solution)

Yield

        *Relationship: 

The relationship with Iran and USA/EU Nations has been in existence for the past 100 years. If the West decides to attack Tehran, the long relationship will be completely destroyed in the next some time if tentative agreement is not found. And if the Middle East will be at war the economic interplay will be in precarity.

Second, if Tehran is allowed to have nuclear atomic energy capacity, they may one day turn it for military weapons; which mean that there might be nuclear competition within the Mid-East region and this can lead to threat and insecurity, not only in the Mid-East, but all over the world. Furthermore, other close allies in the Middle -East such as Israel, Turkey and Saudi Arabia will be at risk and nuclear substances can be in the hands of terrorists. And world history will completely change.

Third, Middle-East Nations are the largest suppliers of oil to USA and European Nations (Iran inclusive) thus, if compromise is not reach with Tehran, the yield the West generating from Iran, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, United Arab Emirate, and Iraq will be at risk and the interest of Western World in the whole of the Middle East will be jeopardized. Take note that oil is the wheel driving the global economic interplay and the world economy will be in tatters.

Forth, if the Western World failed to negotiate with Tehran and find a lasting solution to this long standing political problem and in addition with the current Donald Trump’s tariffs on global trade, the world will face serious global economic melt down more than 1938 and 2008 If tension broke out in the Middle-East, the World economy will be severely affected and plunge in tatters, depression and possibly in to oblivion or recession worst than any other time of global economic history.

Fifth, problem solving can be for example, compensating Tehran with some technological means that should make them generate their electrical energy. By compromising with them to construct hydro-electric stations at different locations in the country may offer more hope for negotiation. Other issues such as lifting more than 500 United Nations’ sanctions against Tehran, releasing their frozen accounts reserves and assets and so on, can lead to reaching a compromise with the Tehran Government.

“Other issues to be looked into in the negotiation and mediation include:
People–relationship—value–history—leadership problem—information—issues—distributive justice—trust—process——structure–
fairness and resources. Also, global peace, stability, morality for the future generations and economic growth and development.

In negotiation and mediation, it is always imperative to turn negative into positive, which can only be possible by making proper diagnosis in any dispute or differences. The West must try to build trust with Iran by respecting their value, people, history and leadership. Also, Tehran must as well do the same things for the whole Western Nations by always observing their people, history, value, culture, interest and leadership. The only way to attain this is by solving the problem through negotiation and mediation process by putting a structure of fairness and distributive justice. Otherwise, the world will be into political, economic and social harakiri.

Both side must consider:

Separate evaluation
/

1. Separation
   /
2. Legitimacy
   /
3. Honesty
   /
4. Realistic commitment
   /
5. Responsibility.

The Western world has to consider as many options as possible; this may give room for finding a solution between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the advanced Western world. Both sides must be honest and committed to any agreement reached, and responsibility to implement the agreement.

Legitimately, IAEA should play a mediating role. They are the ones that should always prepare an agenda, time, and venue to sit round table with Iran and all stakeholders for negotiation. Other NGOs can as well play a great role in the negotiation and mediation.

Certainly, if a negotiated settlement is not found with Tehran, all efforts made in fighting terrorism by the West will be fruitless and can affect political-social and economic well being of not only nations of the world, but individual citizens of human family.

Abbati Bako,psc,bsis,Kent-Alumni, the only UK’s European University, one of the best in the world and former Electoral Commissioner Kano State Independent Electoral Commissioner during Governor Malam Ibrahim Shekarau, former Adviser to the former Governor of Kano State on Public Affairs Dr. Abdullahi Umar Ganduje and currently Treasurer Kano Chamber of Commerce, Students’ Mentor @Kent University and PhD,. Researcher on Globalization Policy @Skyline University Kano and can be reached @abbatibako@mail.com