When news of the alleged attempted coup d’état hit social media, I read many sad comments by some Nigerians, who regretted that the alleged coup plot didn’t succeed. I reckoned that some commentators, especially in the North, do not fully understand the implications of a successful coup against Tinubu at this point in our nation’s trajectory.
I prayed it was merely a hoax because 80% of the alleged coup plotters were allegedly of Northern extraction and if you’re a keen student of history, you would know that no coup has ever been successfully carried out, or even attempted, without the active connivance of civilian collaborators: mostly politicians, regional leaders, and businessmen. The implication is dire.
If the allegation is proven to be true, it would also be the height of double standards and hyper-hypocrisy from the North. Nigeria experienced all the criteria of a failed state under Buhari’s eight-year misrule. Yet, just as how some Northern politicians were hypocritical in seeing nothing wrong with that regime, but are now suddenly roused by a patriotic zeal to rescue Nigeria from the jaws of implosion, the soldiers want to allegedly topple this government. Self-serving, if you ask me.
Why now? Why when a Southerner is president? You made every conceivable excuse for Buhari and accepted a level of chronic nepotism never before witnessed on such a large and disproportionate scale. This went so far that, even while relinquishing power, he was reported to have favoured another Northerner; Atiku ( preferred by his inner cabal at the presidency), or the former Senate President, Ahmed Lawan.
When Adamu, the former APC chair, named Lawan as the “consensus presidential candidate”, I believed him despite the subsequent denial by the presidency. Buhari handpicked Adamu and made him APC chair and they shared a close relationship. An old fox in politics like Adamu would not simply announce such a candidature without the express or tacit approval of the president, if only to test the waters. They wanted a Northern candidate in APC against a Northern candidate in PDP…pure Northern affairs.
Then came “Emilokan…”
“Emilokan” proved to be a masterstroke. It was a heavily loaded, symbolic message with subtle threats, clear only to the discerning.
“Emilokan” which means “It is my turn” (embodied the turn of South West). Speaking in Yoruba, Tinubu wisely ensured a Yoruba interpreter would have to explain the points to Buhari. Also, the fact that the speech was made in Yoruba language was not lost on Buhari. Tinubu went on to say amongst other things (paraphrase) “… Buhari was perpetually unelectable; he even shed tears until I told him not to worry. That he will win this time. I supported him, and it is now my turn…”
The wider implied meanings were also clear to Buhari and his Northern cabal:
- You know the South Easterners have been agitating for a break-up.
- The South South has been fighting for resource control.
- The North Central (or Middle Belt, if you prefer) has been restless. They want an identity distinct from the core North.
- Only the South West has remained pan-Nigerian, serving as a balancing pillar against these various agitations. It has been a veritable ally in Northern political gains and Nigeria’s economic super power; gateway to the seaports, international trade, and commerce etc. But if you try to sabotage our agreement with your Northern agenda, we are ready to join our brothers in the South. You can keep your presidency, and let’s see what remains of Nigeria.
It was a message against the political arrogance and hubris of the North, and the Buhari’s administration got the “memo”
The presidential cabal and all the Northern APC governors who initially disliked him were brought back to their senses. They remembered that Buhari was a perpetual failure who could not win with Northern votes alone until the South West supported him.
They also recalled that the South South has been synonymous with PDP for ages and it also lacks the political hegemony of the South West. The South East has political autonomous states that think independently and cannot be relied upon for block votes, especially with an Obi remaining politically relevant for years to come.
Their best bet was to align with the region they were already in cohort with, and the likely winner there was Tinubu. Their emergency support for him in 2023 was more of a transaction: “We scratch his back now so he can scratch ours again in 2031.”
Even at that, they did not fully accept Tinubu; he defeated them. Tinubu used his own funds and bargaining power to secure his presidency. That is why he sometimes acts as if he does not care about their opinions.
This alleged coup, if true and had it succeeded, would have broken Nigeria as we know it, probably irreparably.
You see this spate of defections to the APC from the Southern regions? It is essentially a Southern regional alliance. They do not want to be bullied again politically by the North, and Tinubu is at the forefront of this push, albeit covertly.
In the event of any coup against Tinubu, I can assure you that the South West, South South, and South East will align. Not because they like each other, but because each would recognize the chance to achieve its regional aspirations within that cooperation. I am not just referring to politics, but militarily too. There would be a military regional alliance on a scale that would disaggregate the military with possible mutiny along ethnic or regional allegiances.
The North would also be balkanized, losing any sense of hegemony. The existing fault lines; the Middle Belt, Northern Christian minority agitations; the increasing belligerence between Hausas ethnic group and the Fulanis, would be further escalated and reflected in the army which would tear the country apart and redraw the map of Nigeria as we know it. Trust me, we do not need any coup at this time!
By now, you should know that Tinubu is a maverick. He is not a Yar’Adua, a Jonathan, or a Buhari. He is a brutal strategist; very Machiavellian in his moves. I am sure even Babangida ( the self styled “Maradona”) is taking advanced lessons now.
D.G. Makai
Interesting read